We’ve all been in that meeting.

You know the one—someone pulls up the slide with those glorious three-letter acronyms: TAM, SAM, SOM. The room leans in. There’s a collective nod. “Wow,” someone says. “That’s a big market.”

Cue the excitement.

Cue the funding dreams.

Cue the illusion.

But let’s cut through the noise:

Market size doesn’t win you the game. The right strategy does.

Blockbuster didn’t fail because the market shrank. It failed because it couldn’t see the one that was growing under its nose. They were measuring DVDs when Netflix was designing the future.

TAM is a rearview mirror—it shows you where things have been, not where they’re going.

Companies that thrive don’t ask “how big is the market?” They ask, “how will the customer experience evolve—and are we ready for it?” That’s what Apple did with the iPhone. Tesla with electric cars. Amazon with everything.

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

If your market sizing slide is the most exciting thing in your strategy deck, you don’t have a strategy.

So, before you get buried in reports, forecasts, and percentages of percentages, pause and ask:

• Are we solving the problems no one else dares to tackle?

• Are we shaping customer behavior—or just reacting to it?

• Are we still trying to win in yesterday’s market?

If the answer makes you squirm a little, good. That means you’re starting to ask the right questions.

Let’s stop pretending the numbers are gospel. Use them, sure—but don’t worship them.

Because the companies that change the game aren’t the ones chasing the market.

They’re the ones creating it.

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